White Collar Middle Management Ranks Will Continue Disappearing At An Accelerated Rate. Geoff’s detailed, fact-based research is sobering. Continuous advances in software design, machine learning, and artificial intelligence results in the need for fewer, white collar workers.
Remember, white collar workforces? MBA-types, MD-types, JD-types, aka the left-brain masters of the universe?
Cognitive, analytical work is on an accelerated chopping block. Increasing automation and computing power means replacing humans isn’t isolated to blue collar Americans.
A Phenomenon Extending Beyond Decades-Old Outsourcing. Why? Because machines do old-school, cognitive, and analytical work better than humans. That prowess IS EXACTLY what machines do better.
Ruth Porat, Google’s Chief Financial Officer (CFO), demonstrated during her June 16th investor relations conference call with Wall Street analysts why communicating with purpose, managing expectations, and showing “I’m actively listening” are still (and will continue to be) the hallmark skills of a successful 21st Century Trusted Advisor.
My apologies to subscribers who received this post before it was completed. I’m experimenting with an offline blog editor, and I accidently published my working draft. Thanks for your patience as I continue stumbling my way around a dark room before finding the light switch.
Here are your Sunday Brunch Reads. Enjoy your brunch!
Here’s a direct quote from the Forbes article (aka Secret #1):
The Theory: “My network/superconnect theory begins with the idea that all the tough problems are solved with networking—lack of key critical resources; money, connections, knowledge all are attached to people orbiting specific ecosystems.”
2.<re/Code>: A Doc in Your Pocket: Doctor on Demand Gets Smarter by Katherine (Katie) Boehert: This insightful article may be the future of primary care medicine, psychotherapy, and psychiatry. It takes telemedicine to a different level by providing the visual component via your desktop or tablet. It makes scheduling a video visit with a real, board-certified physician or PhD easy. Katie described her experience and conducted the appointment from the convenience of her office.
Think about this for a moment. The real estate, time, and physician office investment implications are disruptive:
No waiting rooms
No inconvenience of finding a place to park your car
No office space
No time implications in leaving work or your with driving to and from the doctor’s office
No physician office staff
Check out Katie’s video and article describing her experience with Doctor on Demand:
The article recounts how a once-dominant technology company of the past decade is no longer a relevant player. Blackberry's 1997 IPO to its 2008 stock market peak are highlighted.
After 2008, the iPhone, iPad, and Android OS systematically put Blackberry out of business. A series of anecdotes from former executives, journalists, and others recounts Blackberry's demise due to management missteps, hubris, and self-denial.
Microsoft, Are YOU Paying Attention? What's scary is how Blackberry's key mistakes closely parallel the same ones made by Microsoft and Steve Ballmer (which eventually cost him his job).
Here are key quotes from the Bloomberg Businessweek article compared to other quotes (from other sources) paralleling the ongoing Microsoft saga:
Pattern 1: Apple and the iPhone are neither a relevant mobile player nor are they a legitimate competitive threat.
(Blackberry) In June 2007, the first iPhone hits the stores. Far from recognizing the potential threat to BlackBerry’s dominance, Lazaridis and Balsillie (e.g., RIM's Senior Leaders) publicly belittle Apple’s device, criticizing its short battery life and weaker security.
(Blackberry) Chris Key (global account manager and carrier sales and relationship manager, 2001-09): "I remember being at a [customer] meeting and the CIO was carrying an iPhone. I found out that a lot of senior executives … were carrying iPhones. That was a big red flag for me. The attitude for most of the people in the senior leadership at BlackBerry was, “The BlackBerry solution is secure. It’ll lock down company data. It’ll allow the organization to maintain complete control over the business use of the device. IPhone is a music player and a consumer toy.”
(Microsoft and Steve Ballmer) “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It’s a $500 subsidized item.”
Pattern 2: The Corporate / Enterprise Market is the only relevant market (which shields Blackberry from Apple's and Google Android's consumer penetration).
(Blackberry) Kevin Michaluk (founder of CrackBerry.com, a news site): BlackBerry was a darling of enterprise.If you had a BlackBerry you were an important person,as at that time a lot of people didn’t have a smartphone. It was almost a status symbol within the company. It was the most intuitive communication device. With that blinking red light, it had that addictive quality.
(Blackberry) Gillenwater: If BlackBerry was going to be serious about consumers, they needed to make a fundamental shift in the way products were thought about, created, iterated, marketed, and sold. This was done but never to the extent necessary. It was always a partial effort. There was a period of time when this could have been corrected, but when it became apparent that HQ and senior leadership were not addressing systemic issues, people like myself left.
(Microsoft and Steve Ballmer) “$500, fully subsidized, with a plan! That is the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn’t appeal to business customers, because it doesn’t have a keyboard, which makes it not a very good email machine.”
I've started reading Googled: The End of the World As We Know It by Ken Auletta. There's no question Google is reinventing and transforming the world of traditional media. If you're an online strategy nut or corporate strategy geek like me, you'll love this book.
I discovered this book from a Charlie Rose interview conducted on November 5, 2009. After watching the original broadcast and studying the online archive, I had to write a blog post about the key takeaways from their conversation. I also purchased Mr. Auletta's book from Amazon because I love learning how Google:
* Approaches and dissects problems * Views business opportunities * Drives and sustains innovation throughout its organization
Furthermore, Charlie Rose is the television industry's best broadcaster and interviewer. Check out this Fortune Magazine article: Why Business Loves Charlie Rose. The outstanding content and insights shared on Mr. Rose's nightly show make it required viewing. I also learn from Mr. Rose's preparation, questioning, and listening. He possesses that rare ability to comfortably engage guests and non-threateningly ask difficult questions.
Without further adieu, here are the seven (7) insights I learned by studying the conversation between Mr. Auletta and Mr. Rose. If there are additional viewpoints or lessons you think should be included from the November 5th interview, please share them in the comments section.
Insight 1: Ask Why Does It Have to Be This Way?
Google asks this fundamental question whenever confronting a problem or business opportunity. Their engineers challenge the status quo by starting with a basic assumption — the traditional analog world is inefficient.
Advertising. Wouldn't you want to know if people are reading your ads? Wouldn't you want to know if the people who buy your product(s) do so because of your advertising?
Packaged Computer Software. Why does computer software have to run from our hard drives or a computer desktop? Why can't it run off a computer "cloud" accessible through our web browsers?
Newspaper Publishing. Isn't there a more efficient way to publish and distribute newspapers?
Bottom Line: Google finds a way to drive out inefficiencies. This "engineer's mindset" is the core capability Google brings to solving all traditional problems.
Insight 2: Google and Microsoft are Different – and Alike
Cold Engineers Versus Cold Businessmen. Google isn't out to destroy the competition. Their engineering goal is to drive out inefficiencies. Contrast this mentality with Microsoft in 1998 (when it was investigated for antitrust concerns). Here, the US government questioned the company's intent to compete fairly with Netscape and Sun Microsystems.
Both Share an Inability to Anticipate Other People's Fears. Both Google and Microsoft are brilliant in solving problems. However, both firms don't understand why the US government and public would question their business motives. In Google's case, people now fear them the way people feared Microsoft in 1998. The recent legal proceedings between Google and the publishing industry regarding the digitizing of books is a prime example. Here's a recent article about how Google is attempting to smooth over relations with the publishing industry from The Washington Post titled, Google Allows Publishers to Strengthen Pay Walls.
Insight 3: No One Saw Google Coming (Not Even Bill Gates)
You Can't Anticipate What You Don't Know. In 1998, Mr. Auletta interviewed Bill Gates during Microsoft's antitrust trial period and asked what worried him the most. Gates replied: "I worry about someone in a garage inventing something that will displace Microsoft." Ironically, Larry Page and Sergey Brin are now Microsoft's most significant competitor particularly with their push to establish cloud computing and Google Chrome OS.
2006 was a Tipping Point: The $1.65 Billion YouTube Acquisition. Before this acquisition, it was unclear if Google was making money. With the YouTube acquisition, traditional media finally realized Google's broad ambitions and imminent threat as a future media company. Mr. Auletta said it best during the interview (paraphrasing): "Wow, they're coming after me (e.g., traditional media)."
Insight 4: Google Views Itself as a Media Company Not a Search Company
Become the First $100 Billion Media Company. Eric Schmidt says this is the ultimate goal. Currently, Google hasn't significantly monetized their product portfolio beyond search. However, you can't bet against them because of their involvement in a vast number of areas:
* Advertising: Google AdWords, Google AdSense * Telecommunications: Android OS * Television: YouTube * Books & Publishing: Digitized Books * Software: Cloud Computing, Google Docs
Make Money But Not at the Expense of Violating User Trust. Mr. Auletta finds this insight or clarity of thought extremely telling. At a young age, Brin and Page recognized the value of building user trust because they've received plenty of opportunities to make "easy money." For example, they declined Visa's $3 million offer to place a banner ad on the Google Home Page. Brin and Page declined becaus they thought the ad would be intrusive and disruptive to the user experience.
Insight 5: Google's Simplistic Home Page is a Nod to Steve Jobs and Apple
Google's founders admire Jobs' passion and his vision to simplify with "elegant design." The simplicity and clean look of the Google home page reflects Jobs' and Apple's influence.
Insight 6: How Will Google Handle Current and Future Challenges
Challenge 1: Expanding Revenues Beyond Search (aka The One-Trick Pony). Mr. Auletta points out how Steve Ballmer, Microsoft's CEO, criticizes Google's reliance on search-related revenues. But, I liked Mr. Auletta's anecdote that Eric Schmidt, Google's CEO, replied: "Yeah, but it's a pretty good trick." Still, Ballmer has a point. AdWords and AdSense accounts for $21 billion in revenues (out of $22 billion total). Mr. Auletta puts this number in context and explained that $21 billion is roughly equivalent to the advertising revenues for allU.S. consumer-related magazines. Also, Google's revenue is also equivalent to two-third's of U.S. newspaper advertising revenues.
Not too shabby for a one-trick pony …
Here's a video clip from the CNBC Original: Inside the Mind of Google. It talks about how Google is looking to expand its influence into the mobile market with its Android Operating System:
Challenge 2: Google is Concerned About Vertical Search Via Social Networks. I can personally confirm the power and appeal of search via social networks like Facebook or Twitter. I've commented on other blogs that the reason I find Twitter so powerful is because the people I follow on Twitter are often a better source of content than my own Google search. The authority of your Facebook Friends or who you follow on Twitter is why Google wanted to acquire Twitter.
In many ways, real-time search or conducting a search through Twitter is what Google would ask or propose to threaten their own offering. Google is asking themselves: "Why should you conduct a search through Google when you can solicit the trusted opinion of friends or people who share your common interests?" This idea is captured in one of the best articles I've ever read on Facebook as a potential threat to Google: Wired Article – Great Wall of Facebook: The Social Network's Plan to Dominate the Internet — and Keep Google Out.
Challenge 3: Convincing Top Talent to Remain at Google. Mr. Rose and Mr. Auletta discussed the challenge of employee retention especially when your top engineering talent (1) has no shot at attaining the top spot because you have young founders and (2) the opportunity for a big pay day has already passed. A prime example is Marissa Mayer, Google's VP of Search and User Experience. Even though she's achieved significant wealth as one of the original team members, she may want to forge her own path by leading her own company. Here's an article about Marissa Mayer from the New York Times titled, Putting a Bolder Face on Google.
Challenge 4: Trappings of Your Own, Phenomenal Success: Arrogance and Hubris. Right now, Google is not concerned about Microsoft Bing. They respect what Microsoft has accomplished with Bing and are aware of the Microsoft-Yahoo combination. However, Mr. Auletta thinks Google looks at Microsoft as "an old company" that won't move as quickly as Google.
Furthermore, when you're young and you've become successful so quickly, you begin to question why would anyone question your business motives (e.g., why's the U.S. government giving our company grief for wanting to digitize all books)? In 1998 and 1999, Bill Gates had the same attitude when the U.S. government investigated Microsoft for anti-trust concerns. Christine Varney, Head of the U.S. Justice Department's Anti-Trust Division, is investigating all concentrations of power and the tendency of Democratic-led administrations is to introduce more government regulation. As a result, Google has been beefing up its Washington office with legal talent. Check out this June 2009 New York Times article titled, Google Makes a Case It Isn't So Big. The story profiles Dana Wagner and his significant role in Google public relations on Capitol Hill.
Challenge 5: What Happens to Privacy? Will Google Continue to Not Be Evil? With every Google search we conduct, we leave a digital fingerprint or footprint (i.e., our individual IP address). Everyday, Google collects millions of data points about our online habits and tendencies. This is the reason why advertisers partner with Google. Advertisers want access to that information. What happens if advertisers make significant financial offers to Google to access to that information? This concentration of personal information on Google's servers is the biggest reason people fear it is becoming too powerful.
Here's another video clip from the CNBC Original: Inside the Mind of Google. It talks about how this very subject and includes Marissa Mayer's opinion on this issue:
Humans Are Underrated: What High Achievers Know That Brilliant Machines Never Will by Geoff Colvin is an inspiring book about how and what we can individually do to prepare ourselves and our children for the 21st century workplace revolution happening before our eyes.